1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:16,280 It's hard to imagine modern day horse racing without all the numbers and without all the 2 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,000 computers that have to crunch those numbers. 3 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,040 Computers that calculate odds and payoffs. 4 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,640 Indeed, computers have had a major effect on all kinds of gambling, not just horse racing. 5 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:30,840 Going from computerized slot machines in Vegas to massive databases for professional gamblers. 6 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:37,840 Today we take a look at computers and gambling on this edition of the Computer Chronicles. 7 00:00:37,840 --> 00:01:03,760 The Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, makers of IBM compatible computer 8 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,320 systems including word processing with spelling correction, communication software, and Hayes 9 00:01:08,320 --> 00:01:11,840 compatible 1200 and 2400 baud modems. 10 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,180 Leading Edge with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. 11 00:01:15,180 --> 00:01:18,560 Leading Edge, leading the way to the information age. 12 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,880 Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, publishers of Byte. 13 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:26,360 Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, software, and languages cover developments 14 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:34,720 in computer technology worldwide. 15 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,040 Welcome to the Computer Chronicles. 16 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,680 I'm Stuart Shafae and with me this week is George Morrow. 17 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,000 George, you got kind of interested down there at the racetrack so I got a daily racing form 18 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:43,480 here and this little computer. 19 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,280 I enter all the data here from the racing form into the computer and the computer predicts 20 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,480 which horses are most likely to win the race. 21 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:50,480 We'll see if it works. 22 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,880 It seems to me using a computer to figure out which horse is going to win a race is 23 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,720 really the same thing as using a computer to figure out say which stock is going to 24 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:57,720 win on Wall Street. 25 00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,160 I think you're right, Stuart. 26 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,220 People that do this for a living that give you odds on horses are handicappers. 27 00:02:03,220 --> 00:02:07,960 People that do the same thing or advise you about stocks, I think they admit to handicapping 28 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:08,960 a stock. 29 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,160 So here computers are helping you form judgments. 30 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:13,680 They're an analytical tool. 31 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,040 There's another aspect of gambling which is the chance part of it. 32 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,640 And there in games of pure chance I think computers are being used to help you entertain 33 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:22,800 yourself as you put your money in these machines. 34 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,720 George, we're going to see both those examples in fact on the program. 35 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,120 We're going to start out by taking a trip to Reno, Nevada to see how computers have 36 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,560 revolutionized the casino business. 37 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,320 Enormous casinos with extravagant neon displays. 38 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,420 Stacks of cards and chips on green felt tables. 39 00:02:41,420 --> 00:02:42,720 And clanging slot machines. 40 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,200 These are the traditional symbols of gambling. 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:52,240 But in America's casino capitals, poker chips are increasingly sharing the floor with microchips, 42 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,080 especially in the slot machines. 43 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:59,320 Yeah, the poker machine is a prime example of that, which for all intents and purposes 44 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:06,920 didn't even exist ten years ago and it's approximately 34 to 36 percent of the Nevada market today. 45 00:03:06,920 --> 00:03:12,160 At the International Gaming Technology Corporation in Reno, Nevada, slot machines have little 46 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,700 in common with their clanking mechanical ancestors. 47 00:03:15,700 --> 00:03:20,960 These slots are sophisticated PCs controlled by an Intel microprocessor. 48 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:25,000 And they feature special graphics and sound chips. 49 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,560 They're even designed by a computer. 50 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,880 Putting a coin in the slot is almost like booting up. 51 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:35,600 Basically when you put your money in the machine, and let's take the example of a slot machine 52 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:42,000 and you pull a handle, at that point in time the microcomputer is programmed to pick a 53 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:48,280 random number, actually compute a random number using a 32-bit random number generator. 54 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:54,200 It will then take that 32-bit number and it will basically divide it down to a number 55 00:03:54,200 --> 00:04:00,320 which is within the range of the number of symbols on the reel strips in the machine. 56 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,880 And it will determine what the outcome of the game is to be. 57 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:09,720 Since the game's outcome is determined electronically, the spinning reels are included just to preserve 58 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:14,840 the traditional external appearance of the game, an aspect of great importance to casino 59 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:15,840 operators. 60 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:20,360 In some cases the electronics scare them away. 61 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:27,080 To be specific, if we have a reel machine simulated on a video device and we have all 62 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:31,520 kinds of animation, and I think you may have seen some examples of that, that didn't necessarily 63 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,480 turn on the slot player. 64 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:40,040 It just was too much of a computer screen is our impression. 65 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:47,400 Whereas in a poker game it's the same technology involved, but they love that. 66 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:52,360 Concealed within the friendly interface is a high level of electronic security, such 67 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:58,200 as optical readers that can tell if a coin is being dropped in or pulled out of the slot, 68 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:03,660 and sensors that detect if a door is open or if someone has tampered with the reels. 69 00:05:03,660 --> 00:05:08,880 Slot machines are tied into a local area network that transmits any discrepancies to the central 70 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:14,600 computer room, specifying the kind of fault and the machine's number. 71 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:19,960 At the Harrah's Casino in Reno, a game called Mega Bucks uses the latest in fiber optics 72 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:25,320 and even satellite transmission to tie hundreds of machines together to a central jackpot 73 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:26,320 computer. 74 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:31,400 As each coin drops, the amount of the bet is transferred by fiber optic cable to the 75 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:33,200 casino's computer center. 76 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:39,120 The mainframe recalculates and transmits the new jackpot to an LED display on the casino 77 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:40,280 floor. 78 00:05:40,280 --> 00:05:45,480 The same system operates between casinos around the state over a satellite link. 79 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:50,680 Kino is another game that has been radically changed by computer processing. 80 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:56,000 While paper tickets are still written out by the player, all data entry, number reading, 81 00:05:56,000 --> 00:06:01,280 and bet tabulation are done by computer, which can process the results of the game in about 82 00:06:01,280 --> 00:06:04,880 22 seconds. 83 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,880 Harrah's machines are equipped with more than coin slots. 84 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:12,520 The new generation of one-armed bandits is more like the automatic teller machine at 85 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,400 a bank, with some important differences. 86 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:20,720 You can't make withdrawals or deposits, but the casino will issue personal identification 87 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:35,680 cards to any interested customer. 88 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,080 Joining us in the studio now is Robin Cobby. 89 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,040 Robin's president of Computer Sports World. 90 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,200 Next to Robin is Roxy Roxborough. 91 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,800 Roxy's an odds maker from Las Vegas and generally considered to be the top odds maker in the 92 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:46,800 country. 93 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:47,800 George. 94 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,320 Computer Sports World is a database of sports statistics. 95 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,240 It's owned by the Chronicle. 96 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,040 How does that work together? 97 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,880 Many newspapers in the last several years have wanted to get involved in new forms of 98 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:04,000 communication and communication database services. 99 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:08,400 Computer Sports World was one of those companies that was out there that was in a good market. 100 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,960 It was a good concept and it was something that the Chronicle was very interested in 101 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:12,960 pursuing. 102 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:14,680 This is almost a unique database. 103 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,080 Does anybody else offer anything like this? 104 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:18,800 Not exactly like this. 105 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,800 We're an online database, which means that if you have a computer and a modem or a communicating 106 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:27,640 terminal, you can sign on to us making a local phone call 24 hours a day. 107 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,200 And Roxy, you use this database? 108 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:33,360 Yes, it's an instrumental part of making the odds. 109 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:34,360 What's your opinion of it? 110 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:39,960 Well, I think it's fantastic because it takes a lot of time away that I used to have to 111 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,560 spend doing handwritten notes and keeping a lot of statistics. 112 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,480 So it keeps track of everything that you need to know to make odds. 113 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,160 Right, and it files and organizes everything. 114 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:50,960 Were you able, in fact, before you had computers and databases like this, keep track of the 115 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,400 incredible volume of stats and numbers to make odds? 116 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,400 Well, we did and we may do, but we do a much better job now. 117 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,640 So you feel that you're a lot more accurate having this database? 118 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:05,360 Much more accurate and you have to remember the gamblers have this database too. 119 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,760 So that's one of the reasons we need to keep on top of it. 120 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:12,400 Are you aware of people in the gambling business that use it as extensively as you do? 121 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,040 Yes, there are players, gamblers that use it, yes. 122 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:17,760 Robin, let's take a look at the system now. 123 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,000 Show us the kinds of things you can get out of this database. 124 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,000 We're online right now to your service, right? 125 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,000 Right. 126 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,280 The first thing we're going to want to do is, right now we're looking at it live, so 127 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,360 we're watching the information come right in. 128 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,400 The first thing a subscriber would see, it's very easy to use. 129 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:38,560 You only go in by entering three-digit codes and you'll get a menu that looks like this 130 00:08:38,560 --> 00:08:39,900 that will lead you to that. 131 00:08:39,900 --> 00:08:42,120 Right now we're looking at information coming in live. 132 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:46,600 If I want to look at a matchup, for example, which is a file that Roxy uses quite a bit, 133 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,960 I type in three digits and it immediately comes up. 134 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:49,960 So you can go anywhere in the system with three digits? 135 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:50,960 This is an NCAA basketball matchup, yes. 136 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:51,960 Three digits. 137 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:52,960 What do you get from that, Roxy? 138 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,320 Well, we have Georgia Tech and DePaul. 139 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,560 I see right away that DePaul is 13-0 at home. 140 00:08:57,560 --> 00:08:59,320 That means they're unbeaten on their home court. 141 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:03,680 That's going to make them a pretty good favorite, even over a good ACC team like Georgia Tech. 142 00:09:03,680 --> 00:09:06,720 I can see that Georgia Tech is only 6-6 on the road. 143 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,980 It also shows me all their spread records and it shows me the last five games that each 144 00:09:09,980 --> 00:09:10,980 team has played. 145 00:09:10,980 --> 00:09:13,720 Okay, so you can get home field advantage, all that kind of stuff. 146 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:14,720 What about NBA basketball? 147 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,720 Show us an example there, Robin. 148 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,240 Well, we have a box score we can take a look at. 149 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,720 After each game is over, we go over the box scores to make sure that all the key players 150 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:25,720 from both teams played. 151 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,840 Here's a game where San Antonio played Dallas last night. 152 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:33,360 Now, San Antonio's players are coming across right here where all their starters played 153 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,920 and their major reserves. 154 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,880 And then we'll check Dallas. 155 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,160 This is something you would do every day? 156 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:41,320 Yes, after each game is over. 157 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:42,320 What does this show you? 158 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,880 Well, right now I see where Dallas' star point guard, Derek Harper, didn't play. 159 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,000 In fact, he wasn't even a reserve. 160 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:49,000 So I'll have to find out why. 161 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:50,000 Those are beautiful presentations. 162 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,000 Okay, and how do you do that? 163 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:52,640 What are you doing, Robin? 164 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:53,640 We go right to the injuries. 165 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:54,640 314, the injuries for NBA. 166 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,000 Okay, so you've got a special injury database. 167 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:57,000 Right. 168 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,600 And then we'll check up to see if they have any reason that maybe Harper didn't play last 169 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:01,600 night for Dallas. 170 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:02,600 Okay, so let's get to Dallas. 171 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,600 What does it tell you? 172 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:10,040 Well, it says that Harper's got an infected toe and also reserve guard Al Woods has got 173 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,640 a strained left shoulder. 174 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:12,880 They both missed Friday's game. 175 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,280 They're expected to see limited action, if any, on Saturday. 176 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,940 So I know that when they play Golden State tonight, they'll have to make some slight 177 00:10:17,940 --> 00:10:19,200 adjustment in the line. 178 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:20,200 Okay. 179 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:21,200 What about baseball, Robin? 180 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,360 That's a statistics crazy game. 181 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:23,600 What can you show us on baseball? 182 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,960 Baseball, let me show you the index of our baseball statistics. 183 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:33,820 This is where we really have a lot of statistics, baseball being so statistical. 184 00:10:33,820 --> 00:10:35,320 And we do go back several years. 185 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,680 Look at that, yeah. 186 00:10:36,680 --> 00:10:40,400 So you can see how left-handed pitchers do versus right-handers, how you do on astroturf 187 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,360 versus grass, how pitchers do after so many days off. 188 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:45,360 It's all there. 189 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:46,920 And it's very easy to get at, too. 190 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:47,920 Yes. 191 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,280 And Roxy, you would use all this stuff in putting the line on a baseball game? 192 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:51,280 I use a lot of it. 193 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:54,720 The keys are how teams do against righties and lefties and day-night performance. 194 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:55,720 Okay. 195 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,000 Can you tell us who's going to win the pennant this year, Robin? 196 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:59,240 We do have the odds on that. 197 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:00,240 We probably will. 198 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:01,240 Already in the game. 199 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,640 First, up there, Roxy provides that with us. 200 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:06,420 Well, if you're a New Yorker, you'll probably be happy because we've got both New York teams 201 00:11:06,420 --> 00:11:07,420 favorite. 202 00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:10,000 The Mets to repeat and win the National League, they're 7 to 5 favorites. 203 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,760 And the Yankees to be the American League champions, they're 7 to 2 favorites. 204 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,520 Roxy, there's lots of different sports that people gamble on, obviously. 205 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,720 I was wondering, any particular sport in which the computer's really a big advantage? 206 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,680 Yes, it's the biggest advantage in college basketball because we have to chart and track 207 00:11:23,680 --> 00:11:24,680 162 teams. 208 00:11:24,680 --> 00:11:27,160 There's thousands of variables. 209 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,240 There's injuries to chart for every team. 210 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,000 There's just so much that without this service, it would be almost impossible. 211 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,000 Huge database, then. 212 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:34,000 Yes. 213 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,880 I guess, Robin, as you said, you're the Dow Jones of the sports world. 214 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:36,880 I am the Dow Jones of the sports world, right. 215 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:38,200 Robin, Roxy, thank you very much. 216 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,800 As we saw at the beginning of the program, horse racing depends very much on computers 217 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:42,800 for its betting system. 218 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:47,200 And one of the newest and most modern computerized betting systems is here at Golden Gate Fields 219 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,960 in the San Francisco Bay Area. 220 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:59,920 Wendy Woods has that report. 221 00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:04,440 While certain traditions at the track will never fall under the spell of technology, 222 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:09,520 the business of racetrack betting has at many fields been automated to a level as sophisticated 223 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,240 as the nation's election system. 224 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:18,240 Unlike the old days of just a few years ago, relay systems and tallying by individual clerks 225 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,400 have been replaced by massive computerized betting systems. 226 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:28,880 Here at Golden Gate Fields in Albany, California, the odds, the race results, and up to $3 million 227 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:34,400 in bets placed daily pass through seven continuously operating phone lines to the brains of the 228 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:39,320 operation, a mainframe at the nearby Bay Meadows racetrack. 229 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:44,680 Bettors can still go face to face with humans for their wagers, but the clerks all use terminals 230 00:12:44,680 --> 00:12:46,640 linked up to the system. 231 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:52,560 The more adventurous bettor can use a self-serve betting machine or the newest touchscreen 232 00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:53,560 terminals. 233 00:12:53,560 --> 00:13:00,560 They bet and collect with vouchers that can be used for an entire day of winning or losing. 234 00:13:00,560 --> 00:13:05,880 Even the tote board on the track is controlled and automatically updated by this one computer 235 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:06,880 system. 236 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,120 Marty Miller of Amtote is the brains behind the operation. 237 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:15,800 It's actually very simple because we have access to the computer at Bay Meadows and 238 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:20,040 I can go back to just any window in a plant here and tell them exactly where they stand 239 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:24,000 with their wagers, how many tickets they've sold, what they've done in their last four 240 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:25,000 transactions. 241 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:29,360 Sometimes if they forget where they are, we can help them balance out. 242 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:33,360 He adds computerized betting is not only efficient, it's honest. 243 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:39,920 22 years, every penny that we've ever handled in mutual handle has been accounted for. 244 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,320 We know exactly what each clerk sells. 245 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,440 We know exactly on the old system what they cashed. 246 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:47,440 They would balance it a penny. 247 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:51,280 We would count the tickets, what the payoffs were, how much the state got. 248 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,600 Every penny, every penny has been accounted for over the years. 249 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,620 Things haven't always gone this smoothly. 250 00:13:56,620 --> 00:14:00,800 On the day that new cards were issued for the machines, the system crashed. 251 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:05,480 Golden Gate Fields officials soothed tempers by issuing free rain checks for a day that 252 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,000 the computers were back up. 253 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:13,200 Amtote's computerized betting systems are installed in thousands of racetracks worldwide 254 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,880 and that's a pretty good track record. 255 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:31,140 In Albany, California, for the Computer Chronicles, I'm Wendy Woods. 256 00:14:31,140 --> 00:14:35,960 With us in the studio now is Bob Archer, president of PDS Software of Torrance, California. 257 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,740 Next to Bob is Professor Michael Orkin, co-founder of Best Bet Software. 258 00:14:39,740 --> 00:14:40,740 George. 259 00:14:40,740 --> 00:14:47,020 Roxy is a really good, skilled odds maker and he seems to have an edge by looking at 260 00:14:47,020 --> 00:14:51,300 the data and understanding where he can get access to it, but he doesn't seem to be using 261 00:14:51,300 --> 00:14:54,440 computers and doing any analysis. 262 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:55,440 Can you comment on that? 263 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:59,820 Well, if he had a program that picked the lines and there was a bias in it, the bettors 264 00:14:59,820 --> 00:15:04,660 would pick up on it, any slight bias, and they would start betting accordingly. 265 00:15:04,660 --> 00:15:10,720 And as a result, he'd get locked into a system that would cause the bookmakers to lose. 266 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:16,740 But couldn't he use a program to keep track of that and to modify that and to actually 267 00:15:16,740 --> 00:15:18,100 become a better odds maker? 268 00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:23,880 Well, I'm sure he uses computers to keep up with data, but if he had a program that actually 269 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:29,540 picked the line, he would have to keep modifying it because if there were any biases, maybe 270 00:15:29,540 --> 00:15:31,340 some would occur from time to time. 271 00:15:31,340 --> 00:15:35,940 But when he picks a line, he's going through analysis. 272 00:15:35,940 --> 00:15:40,260 That's right, but it's a very dynamic process and he has to keep up with what's going on 273 00:15:40,260 --> 00:15:44,900 and there's so many factors that for him to get locked into a program, which could be 274 00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:45,900 very dangerous. 275 00:15:45,900 --> 00:15:48,220 So he does, right now, he's doing better by staying away from a program. 276 00:15:48,220 --> 00:15:51,820 Right, he's doing better by staying away from a program that actually picks the line. 277 00:15:51,820 --> 00:15:55,860 However, he's relying on computers to provide him with all of the data that he needs. 278 00:15:55,860 --> 00:15:57,620 Bob, you're handicapping horses now. 279 00:15:57,620 --> 00:16:01,060 Is that also a little bit subjective or can you really reduce that to statistics? 280 00:16:01,060 --> 00:16:03,700 No, it would always be subjective. 281 00:16:03,700 --> 00:16:10,620 The computer is an instrument whereby the user would be able to manipulate all the data 282 00:16:10,620 --> 00:16:15,660 to where he wants it so that he has it all in one mode to where he can use it to actually 283 00:16:15,660 --> 00:16:17,580 make his selection from it. 284 00:16:17,580 --> 00:16:20,940 Show us what you would do with your software here in Handicapping a Race, Bob. 285 00:16:20,940 --> 00:16:26,900 Well, basically, our program would work under a principle of entering the data from the 286 00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:31,060 racing form for each particular horse in this particular race today. 287 00:16:31,060 --> 00:16:32,900 So what kind of variables do you have there? 288 00:16:32,900 --> 00:16:39,340 Basically, we have three variables for the race itself and approximately 11 variables 289 00:16:39,340 --> 00:16:40,340 for the horse. 290 00:16:40,340 --> 00:16:43,740 First, you enter the horse's name, his number of starts, let's say, are 12. 291 00:16:43,740 --> 00:16:44,860 He's got three wins. 292 00:16:44,860 --> 00:16:52,260 He's got a total earnings of $67,890 and he's been away from the racetrack for 23 days. 293 00:16:52,260 --> 00:16:56,100 He was second, let's say, in his last race at his first call. 294 00:16:56,100 --> 00:16:58,100 Again, this is information you're pulling off the data in racing form. 295 00:16:58,100 --> 00:16:59,820 Right out of the racing form, that's correct. 296 00:16:59,820 --> 00:17:03,180 His track category, let's say he's racing at Santa Anita, his track category would be 297 00:17:03,180 --> 00:17:04,660 number one. 298 00:17:04,660 --> 00:17:08,540 The distance in his furlongs, he went a mile, so it's going to be eight furlongs. 299 00:17:08,540 --> 00:17:14,820 His speed rating of his best race of the last three was 90 with a track variant of 12. 300 00:17:14,820 --> 00:17:19,060 He had a top 10 jockey on his back and his trainer rating was a 12.33. 301 00:17:19,060 --> 00:17:20,060 Okay. 302 00:17:20,060 --> 00:17:22,380 Now, we've now entered profiles for three different horses. 303 00:17:22,380 --> 00:17:23,900 Let's pretend it's a three-horse race now. 304 00:17:23,900 --> 00:17:26,380 Can you go in and analyze these three horses now? 305 00:17:26,380 --> 00:17:31,060 Yes, we would at this point come up with the next screen. 306 00:17:31,060 --> 00:17:35,660 We'd enter zero and it's going to calculate and put all three horses in their proper order. 307 00:17:35,660 --> 00:17:38,980 You've got a power rating suggesting that Bosto is most likely to win the race among 308 00:17:38,980 --> 00:17:39,980 these three horses. 309 00:17:39,980 --> 00:17:41,220 Bosto, that is correct. 310 00:17:41,220 --> 00:17:43,780 Bosto is the favorite here. 311 00:17:43,780 --> 00:17:47,180 He has a power rating exceeding 12 points. 312 00:17:47,180 --> 00:17:51,460 We're looking for a three and a half point spread between the first horse and the second 313 00:17:51,460 --> 00:17:53,900 horse in order to have what we call a playable race. 314 00:17:53,900 --> 00:17:54,900 I see. 315 00:17:54,900 --> 00:17:58,060 We're getting to the handicapper's own personal biases at that point. 316 00:17:58,060 --> 00:18:00,100 Bob, what exactly is the software doing? 317 00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:02,340 How is it coming up with that rating for those horses? 318 00:18:02,340 --> 00:18:09,940 It is comparing the input of all the data on each individual item to a predetermined 319 00:18:09,940 --> 00:18:12,740 set of standards that it has to compare against. 320 00:18:12,740 --> 00:18:13,740 With a weighting factor. 321 00:18:13,740 --> 00:18:17,500 With a weighting factor to each one of them that then comes up and compares all 10 of 322 00:18:17,500 --> 00:18:18,820 them horses against each other. 323 00:18:18,820 --> 00:18:21,660 Okay, Bob, if I can ask you to pass the keyboard over to Mike now. 324 00:18:21,660 --> 00:18:25,940 Mike, you've got a program that helps a guy betting on football, not the horses, right? 325 00:18:25,940 --> 00:18:26,940 Right. 326 00:18:26,940 --> 00:18:27,940 And what does the software do? 327 00:18:27,940 --> 00:18:34,180 The software has every NFL game since 1979 and it provides its self-contained database 328 00:18:34,180 --> 00:18:39,980 that comes on one floppy disk and it allows the person interested in football to ask questions 329 00:18:39,980 --> 00:18:42,180 about how teams have done in various situations. 330 00:18:42,180 --> 00:18:43,940 Show us the kinds of questions you'd ask it. 331 00:18:43,940 --> 00:18:49,940 Well, I've entered on the program now a look at all New York Giants games since 1983 in 332 00:18:49,940 --> 00:18:53,180 which they lost the week before and played on the road the week before. 333 00:18:53,180 --> 00:18:54,820 And a veteran might actually ask that question. 334 00:18:54,820 --> 00:18:55,820 Yes. 335 00:18:55,820 --> 00:18:56,900 This week the Giants might be playing at home. 336 00:18:56,900 --> 00:18:57,900 They lost last week. 337 00:18:57,900 --> 00:18:59,900 Maybe they really want to win. 338 00:18:59,900 --> 00:19:02,260 Notice they've won at the top on the left. 339 00:19:02,260 --> 00:19:05,260 They've won against a spread 66.7% of the time. 340 00:19:05,260 --> 00:19:10,060 At the bottom, they've won at home against a spread 61% of the time. 341 00:19:10,060 --> 00:19:12,900 Away against a spread two games. 342 00:19:12,900 --> 00:19:17,060 You can also get a list of the games and see exactly what games were played under those 343 00:19:17,060 --> 00:19:20,820 conditions, what the spread was, whether they won or lost against the spread. 344 00:19:20,820 --> 00:19:24,180 Okay, Mike, things like, suppose I had a question about what's the home field advantage on a 345 00:19:24,180 --> 00:19:25,180 Monday night game. 346 00:19:25,180 --> 00:19:26,420 Okay, you can look at day of the week. 347 00:19:26,420 --> 00:19:33,900 In fact, let's go down and do that and just look at all Monday night games since 1983. 348 00:19:33,900 --> 00:19:37,020 So day of the week is down there. 349 00:19:37,020 --> 00:19:40,380 In this case, the stats will come up just for the home team. 350 00:19:40,380 --> 00:19:42,780 Is this an important question for a veteran? 351 00:19:42,780 --> 00:19:47,060 Well, it's one of the many things that a better wants to know about when trying to decide 352 00:19:47,060 --> 00:19:48,060 what team to pick. 353 00:19:48,060 --> 00:19:49,060 What's the program tell you? 354 00:19:49,060 --> 00:19:54,100 Well, that on Monday night, the home team has beat the spread 59.4% of the time since 355 00:19:54,100 --> 00:19:55,100 1983. 356 00:19:55,100 --> 00:19:56,100 So they got a little bit of an edge. 357 00:19:56,100 --> 00:19:58,500 They have, well, they have a little bit of knowledge there that they might put in with 358 00:19:58,500 --> 00:20:00,780 some other stuff that they'll also find on this database. 359 00:20:00,780 --> 00:20:04,860 Mike, how much of an advantage is it really for a better to have a piece of software like 360 00:20:04,860 --> 00:20:05,860 this and this kind of information? 361 00:20:05,860 --> 00:20:08,940 It enables the better to answer a question in a couple of seconds. 362 00:20:08,940 --> 00:20:13,300 It might take them a few hours to do by hand or maybe not even to be able to answer at 363 00:20:13,300 --> 00:20:14,300 all. 364 00:20:14,300 --> 00:20:16,500 So his edge here is he's got a lot of data altogether, right? 365 00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:18,220 Mike, Bob, thank you very much. 366 00:20:18,220 --> 00:20:22,660 Now, one of the most popular forms of gambling in this country is betting on state lotteries. 367 00:20:22,660 --> 00:20:26,180 One of the oldest and most sophisticated state lotteries is the one in Pennsylvania where 368 00:20:26,180 --> 00:20:32,140 they use computers quite a bit. 369 00:20:32,140 --> 00:20:36,480 Each year, Pennsylvania sells more than a billion dollars in lottery tickets. 370 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,900 And when the jackpot gets big enough, that can mean a sales volume of up to one million 371 00:20:40,900 --> 00:20:42,820 transactions an hour. 372 00:20:42,820 --> 00:20:45,580 None of this would be possible without computers. 373 00:20:45,580 --> 00:20:50,420 And indeed, the Pennsylvania lottery has a massive investment in computers. 374 00:20:50,420 --> 00:20:53,580 Retailers sell lottery numbers from online terminals. 375 00:20:53,580 --> 00:20:58,660 Computers recreate each day's games on a separate IBM backup system to ensure the integrity 376 00:20:58,660 --> 00:21:00,060 of the games. 377 00:21:00,060 --> 00:21:05,900 Computers are used to analyze sales, project jackpots and to monitor the actual betting. 378 00:21:05,900 --> 00:21:10,020 The Pennsylvania lottery, in fact, runs one of the most complex computer networks with 379 00:21:10,020 --> 00:21:13,580 nearly 3,000 terminals on a controlled data system. 380 00:21:13,580 --> 00:21:17,620 The system has 100 percent redundancy and a hot backup. 381 00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:21,060 So one rarely hears that the computer is down. 382 00:21:21,060 --> 00:21:28,660 In 10 years, and your viewers would be interested to know that our uptime is 99.98 percent, 383 00:21:28,660 --> 00:21:32,220 as close to perfection as you possibly could get with an online system. 384 00:21:32,220 --> 00:21:38,940 I don't remember a major downtime since 1977 when we first began. 385 00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:42,980 One of the primary functions of the computer system is to constantly monitor the lottery's 386 00:21:42,980 --> 00:21:47,120 payoff liability to make sure that no one can break the bank. 387 00:21:47,120 --> 00:21:51,660 On the Big Four game, which pays odds of 5,000 to 1, the computer makes sure that the state 388 00:21:51,660 --> 00:21:56,540 is never exposed to a liability in excess of $5 million per game. 389 00:21:56,540 --> 00:22:01,180 If it senses heavy betting on one particular number, in this case 11-11, it sends out a 390 00:22:01,180 --> 00:22:04,420 warning and then cuts off betting on that number. 391 00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:08,380 Heavy betting on a particular number often occurs because lottery players tend to follow 392 00:22:08,380 --> 00:22:10,940 common patterns in picking numbers. 393 00:22:10,940 --> 00:22:16,420 For example, when years ago when Pete Rose was with Philadelphia and he had his certain 394 00:22:16,420 --> 00:22:19,500 number of hits, they played that number. 395 00:22:19,500 --> 00:22:21,620 They played a Super Bowl score. 396 00:22:21,620 --> 00:22:23,680 They play the Jewish New Year. 397 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,780 They play the Chinese New Year. 398 00:22:25,780 --> 00:22:30,380 While the computer system assures a random drawing every time, the law of averages takes 399 00:22:30,380 --> 00:22:31,860 a while to work. 400 00:22:31,860 --> 00:22:36,820 We've had over 3,100 daily number drawings, pick three drawings, in 10 years. 401 00:22:36,820 --> 00:22:42,700 However, there are two or three dozen numbers that haven't come up out of 3,100 drawings, 402 00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:44,700 and there are only 1,000 numbers. 403 00:22:44,700 --> 00:22:49,420 The lottery's computers have many safeguards to protect against being broken into. 404 00:22:49,420 --> 00:22:54,940 Games are shut down exactly 168 seconds prior to the winning drawing so that all computer 405 00:22:54,940 --> 00:22:56,560 tapes can be removed. 406 00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,020 That way no one can enter a winning number after the drawing. 407 00:23:00,020 --> 00:23:04,260 Often the computer experts here actually hire hackers and challenge them to try to break 408 00:23:04,260 --> 00:23:09,060 in so that they can spot any weaknesses which may exist in the system. 409 00:23:09,060 --> 00:23:13,340 Seven years ago, the Pennsylvania lottery did fall victim to a scandal, but it had nothing 410 00:23:13,340 --> 00:23:15,060 to do with the computers. 411 00:23:15,060 --> 00:23:19,480 Most of the balls which are used in the drawings were weighted so that only sixes would rise 412 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,580 to the top. 413 00:23:20,580 --> 00:23:25,140 But a slow motion analysis of the drawing coupled with detailed computer analysis led 414 00:23:25,140 --> 00:23:27,820 investigators to the culprits. 415 00:23:27,820 --> 00:23:33,060 Drawing processing showed exactly where these bets were coming from. 416 00:23:33,060 --> 00:23:37,320 We went to those retailers, found out who was sitting in the white Cadillac placing 417 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:42,380 all those bets, and basically were able to convict on the computer evidence. 418 00:23:42,380 --> 00:23:47,100 But despite all the computers, when it comes to calculating the payoffs, no one trusts 419 00:23:47,100 --> 00:23:48,100 the computers. 420 00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:53,300 The numbers are crunched manually with a good old-fashioned desk calculator, some paper, 421 00:23:53,300 --> 00:23:54,300 and a pencil. 422 00:23:54,300 --> 00:23:57,060 When you're sitting alone in the middle of the night giving away millions of dollars, 423 00:23:57,060 --> 00:24:00,500 you have to be absolutely sure you're doing it perfectly. 424 00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:02,980 And that's our look at computers and gambling. 425 00:24:02,980 --> 00:24:16,700 We'll be back in just a minute with this week's computer news. 426 00:24:16,700 --> 00:24:20,900 I'm Susan Chase sitting in for Stuart Shafae in the Random Access File this week. 427 00:24:20,900 --> 00:24:24,620 NCR Corporation unveiled a new line of personal computers. 428 00:24:24,620 --> 00:24:30,420 NCR introduced two AT compatibles, one 286 machine and one 386 workstation. 429 00:24:30,420 --> 00:24:34,980 The machines are based on NCR's incremental workstation architecture and will be available 430 00:24:34,980 --> 00:24:36,540 later this year. 431 00:24:36,540 --> 00:24:41,380 Hewlett Packard announced three new technical computers and said that the 930 and 950 business 432 00:24:41,380 --> 00:24:45,740 computers announced in 1986 will finally ship this fall. 433 00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:49,940 All five of the computers are based on the technology of reduced instruction set computing 434 00:24:49,940 --> 00:24:51,380 or RISC. 435 00:24:51,380 --> 00:24:56,300 Digital Equipment and Cray Research will soon introduce a new interface between their computers. 436 00:24:56,300 --> 00:25:00,700 The new product, a combination of digital hardware and Cray software, is part of an 437 00:25:00,700 --> 00:25:04,500 effort to speed up data transfer between the two companies' computers. 438 00:25:04,500 --> 00:25:09,060 Digital will market the interface in an effort to step up pressure on IBM in the scientific 439 00:25:09,060 --> 00:25:10,860 computing market. 440 00:25:10,860 --> 00:25:14,940 And now it's time for this week's software review and here's Paul Schindler. 441 00:25:14,940 --> 00:25:20,140 You know, maybe I would be better at this if I'd had a computer when I was young. 442 00:25:20,140 --> 00:25:25,700 Well, to help your kids do better, here's some top flight Macintosh educational software, 443 00:25:25,700 --> 00:25:29,100 Kids Time, a collection of five educational games. 444 00:25:29,100 --> 00:25:31,100 Now first there's Connect the Dots. 445 00:25:31,100 --> 00:25:33,900 When you're done, the computer redraws it. 446 00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:34,900 Then there's A.B. 447 00:25:34,900 --> 00:25:38,180 Key, which takes advantage of the Mac's sophisticated sound. 448 00:25:38,180 --> 00:25:41,980 It names the letters your child types. 449 00:25:41,980 --> 00:25:44,160 Match It is a matching game with logic. 450 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,120 It starts with a robot puzzle. 451 00:25:46,120 --> 00:25:50,300 Each piece you get wrong, the computer pulls back out. 452 00:25:50,300 --> 00:25:56,260 Kids Notes will play a song and will also allow you to compose and record your own. 453 00:25:56,260 --> 00:26:06,380 Story Writer reads the story as you write it or all at once at the end. 454 00:26:06,380 --> 00:26:11,500 Kids Time is world-class educational software for the Apple Macintosh, $50 from Great Wave 455 00:26:11,500 --> 00:26:13,740 Software in Stanford, California. 456 00:26:13,740 --> 00:26:17,340 For the Computer Chronicles, I'm Paul Schindler. 457 00:26:17,340 --> 00:26:20,460 News from the spring context in Atlanta has started to trickle in. 458 00:26:20,460 --> 00:26:26,420 Sharp plans to introduce two portables, one a clone of the PC-AT called the PC-7200 and 459 00:26:26,420 --> 00:26:30,740 the other, the PC-4500, is compatible with the PC-XT. 460 00:26:30,740 --> 00:26:33,060 And Samsung will show off its new clones. 461 00:26:33,060 --> 00:26:39,220 The SAM-88T is designed to be XT compatible and the SAM-286 is an AT compatible machine. 462 00:26:39,220 --> 00:26:43,500 Finally, Japanese companies are working on a new method of software distribution that 463 00:26:43,500 --> 00:26:46,500 is designed to eliminate software piracy. 464 00:26:46,500 --> 00:26:51,180 Called the Software Service System, the product is a box that attaches to existing computers 465 00:26:51,180 --> 00:26:53,860 or could be built into new computers. 466 00:26:53,860 --> 00:26:57,220 Software would not run on the computer until the box authorized it. 467 00:26:57,220 --> 00:27:01,140 Users would purchase a special card to activate the box and give credit for any software the 468 00:27:01,140 --> 00:27:02,900 user wanted to buy. 469 00:27:02,900 --> 00:27:07,300 Users would be encouraged to copy software but be prevented from using it without paying 470 00:27:07,300 --> 00:27:08,300 for it. 471 00:27:08,300 --> 00:27:14,140 That's it for this week's Computer Chronicles. 472 00:27:14,140 --> 00:27:18,460 The Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, makers of IBM compatible computer 473 00:27:18,460 --> 00:27:23,020 systems including word processing with spelling correction, communication software, and Hays 474 00:27:23,020 --> 00:27:26,500 compatible 1200 and 2400 baud modems. 475 00:27:26,500 --> 00:27:29,860 Leading Edge with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. 476 00:27:29,860 --> 00:27:33,220 Leading Edge, leading the way to the information age. 477 00:27:33,220 --> 00:27:36,540 Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, publishers of Byte. 478 00:27:36,540 --> 00:27:41,060 Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, software, and languages cover developments 479 00:27:41,060 --> 00:28:08,780 in computer technology worldwide.